Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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- Type：Epub+TxT+PDF+Mobi
- Create Date：2021-10-29 06:53:13
- Update Date：2025-09-06
- Status：finish
- Author：Annie Duke
- ISBN：0735216355
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Summary
In Super Bowl XLIX， Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining， and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line， he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back。 The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost。 Critics called it the dumbest play in history。 But was the call really that bad？ Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck？
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time。 There's always an element of luck that you can't control， and there is always information that is hidden from view。 So the key to long-term success （and avoiding worrying yourself to death） is to think in bets: How sure am I？ What are the possible ways things could turn out？ What decision has the highest odds of success？ Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time？ Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making？
Annie Duke， a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant， draws on examples from business， sports， politics， and （of course） poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions。 For most people， it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and， even， rewards the appearance of certainty。 But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes。
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't， you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions， knee-jerk biases， and destructive habits in your decision making。 You'll become more confident， calm， compassionate and successful in the long run。
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time。 There's always an element of luck that you can't control， and there is always information that is hidden from view。 So the key to long-term success （and avoiding worrying yourself to death） is to think in bets: How sure am I？ What are the possible ways things could turn out？ What decision has the highest odds of success？ Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time？ Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making？
Annie Duke， a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant， draws on examples from business， sports， politics， and （of course） poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions。 For most people， it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and， even， rewards the appearance of certainty。 But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes。
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't， you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions， knee-jerk biases， and destructive habits in your decision making。 You'll become more confident， calm， compassionate and successful in the long run。
Reviews
David
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Great read and approach to decisions。
Abhishek
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Starts off well， gets repetitive in the middle， and ends with a flourish。 Decision making and life seen through the lens of poker， decent read。
Jacob Ferraiolo
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Very repetitive。 I would recommend Super Forecasting over this book。 Covers similar concepts of probabilistic thinking in a more compelling way。
Jerry
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Pros: The first three chapters included some interesting insights on how to think better and workarounds to circumvent cognitive bias。 Cons: The structure of the book can be further improved。 The chapter and section names are not indicative enough for the readers to understand what the chapter is about。 The content of the book can be further improved。 Annie filled the book with an impressive amount of stories about other people， diverting the readers from the main arguments of the book。 Overall: Pros: The first three chapters included some interesting insights on how to think better and workarounds to circumvent cognitive bias。 Cons: The structure of the book can be further improved。 The chapter and section names are not indicative enough for the readers to understand what the chapter is about。 The content of the book can be further improved。 Annie filled the book with an impressive amount of stories about other people， diverting the readers from the main arguments of the book。 Overall: An interesting but slightly painful read。 。。。more
Saurabh Modi
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My rating is 3。5 stars， but rounding down since Goodreads allows only a "whole number" of stars。Lot of good ideas about decision making framework， how to think （specifically， being ok with uncertainty， being more objective in how we view the world and how to field outcomes properly to field them to our learning cycle）。 It's more useful for the readers who have to take decisions in light of uncertain information frequently。 I think it's highly actionable but for some reason I didn't feel it to ha My rating is 3。5 stars， but rounding down since Goodreads allows only a "whole number" of stars。Lot of good ideas about decision making framework， how to think （specifically， being ok with uncertainty， being more objective in how we view the world and how to field outcomes properly to field them to our learning cycle）。 It's more useful for the readers who have to take decisions in light of uncertain information frequently。 I think it's highly actionable but for some reason I didn't feel it to have the academic rigor of Thinking Fast and Slow （could be because the book draws on past experiments to provide recommendations - which make intuitive sense， but there aren't a lot of success stories I'd usually prefer from a book prescribing a framework of thinking）。 Note that I don't strictly think this is a bad thing - the book managed to provide a reasonable amount of rigor and a made a lot of intuitive sense to me， so I'm personally fine it with。Why do I give it 1。5 less stars in-spite of my praise of the content？ Two reasons - - lack of academic rigor for proposed decision making framework （half star off for that）- last 2 chapters were difficult to read through （felt like slog to me）。 Still useful， but difficult to read （1 star off for that） 。。。more
Roxana Jabbarinejad
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عااااالیه، عااالی
Andrea Niznikova
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Finally a book that explain something you can remember and apply in your daily life。I read many months ago and I can still find or remember something I can use to improve myself or my life。What you need to just to keep in mind is to apply constantly what she explained properly in this book。Good investment！
Luis Moran
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Work your way back from bad imagined possible outcomes to make better decisions in the present
Elizabeth Johnston
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Interesting concepts on decision making。 She had some good analogies and examples which helps you apply the information to your situation。
Eric
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The book by Annie Duke was insightful。 It helped me breakdown my current thought process and provide additional tools。 My biggest takeaway was understanding that making a decision with information and data you have in the moment can provide a bad outcome。 The focus is on the process。 Don't give up。 Your thinking will get better with time。 The book by Annie Duke was insightful。 It helped me breakdown my current thought process and provide additional tools。 My biggest takeaway was understanding that making a decision with information and data you have in the moment can provide a bad outcome。 The focus is on the process。 Don't give up。 Your thinking will get better with time。 。。。more
Anoxic
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Definitely helped me to handle my emotions better when it comes to lost-averse
Lauri Viljanen
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Well written， but very basic stuff。
James Lusher
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Not particularly engaging
Jose Sbuck
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Life is uncertain。 Learn to think in terms of probabilities and you'll make more accurate estimates and better decisions， claims Annie Duke in this book of hers。 Duke is a successful poker player who draws lessons from her experiences in the fast-paced decision-making inherent in poker。 The concept is very interesting and Duke does good job in summarizing the main points。 She's standing on the shoulders of giants， such as von Neuman， Kahneman， Tetlock， etc。 She lists many research findings and， Life is uncertain。 Learn to think in terms of probabilities and you'll make more accurate estimates and better decisions， claims Annie Duke in this book of hers。 Duke is a successful poker player who draws lessons from her experiences in the fast-paced decision-making inherent in poker。 The concept is very interesting and Duke does good job in summarizing the main points。 She's standing on the shoulders of giants， such as von Neuman， Kahneman， Tetlock， etc。 She lists many research findings and， which is more， how these findings could be used in practice。 The main idea is that all our decisions are bets。 We bet on what is most likely to happen and risk losing if we are wrong。 There's the oppotunity cost as well， meaning that we are mostly betting against ourselves: deciding to take a job in another city is simultaneously a decision to leave the current city and its opportunities。 Thinking in bets， the book's title， is supposed to make us explicitly state the uncertainty we are facing。 We can't be 100% sure that it's a good idea to take the job in another city。 How certain am I？ 60%？ Is it still a good idea to go？Thinking in bets is difficult because there's no clear feedback loop telling if a decision was correct or not。 Duke writes about "resulting"， which means rating decisions based on the outcomes。 Resulting is not good for learning because in an uncertain world the outcome could have been caused by luck instead of skill。 A bad decision can lead to good outcome if we get lucky。 We can learn only if we appropriately field an outcome to luck or skill。Duke's suggestion is to have a team， "pod"， that focuses on analysing decisions honestly。 Her point is that fielding correctly is too difficult to do alone。 The "pods" are supposed to work like CIA's red teams， playing a devil's advocate suggesting other possible explanations for a specific outcome。 The pod could utilize Merton's CUDOS: sharing all data， considering all messages disinterestedly， presenting skepticism in a humane way。 Her practical rules are: express your uncertainty to encourage others to share helpful information; lead with assent as in improvisation theatre; focus on future so that people can leave past mistakes behind and figure out what to do in the future。 [Supreme Court Justice] Thomas once said， "I won't hire clerks who have profound disagreements with me。 It's like trying to train a pig。 It wastes your time， and it aggravates the pig。" That makes sense only if you believe the goal of a decision group is to train people to agree with you。 But if your goal is to develop the best decision process， that is an odd sentiment indeed。 The main downside of the book （for me） is the rambling， for-dummies style。 The flow of the text wasn't to my liking and too many pages were used to convince the reader that they are still a good person even if they have psychological biases。In the final chapter the author seems to switch gears。 The chapter considers decision making affecting our future selves。 Instead of focusing in the present feelings and facts， we should recall past experiences and imagine future feelings。 Duke plausibly argues that this kind of mental time travel forces analytical thinking and decreases the risk of bad decisions。 Use 10-10-10: what this decision would feel like in 10 mins， 10 months， 10 years？ Or another tool， backcasting vs premortem so that we include both success and failure scenarios in decision making。 In backcasting， we should imagine a good outcome， then tell how we got there。 In premortem， we should imagine a bad outcome， and explain why we failed。 I gave three stars， then updated to four stars。 The latter half of the book had some new （to me） good ideas for building better teams and safe-guarding against stupid personal acts。 And the notes section in the end was so thorough and witty， that the fourth star is deserved。Recommended to people interested in behavioral psychology， decision making under pressure。 Not a book about poker。 。。。more
Christian Compton
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This is the book I wanted Thinking Fast and Slow to be。 I loved how applied and pragmatic the book was and it provoked a lot of reflection in myself about decision making under uncertainty。 The book presents several useful tools to help make better decisions in everyday life， beginning with their application in gambling。
Caleb Kai Lim
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First book chosen by my book club。 I did not finish it （one more chapter to go） but I felt that I wasn't missing out on any content - as what has been mentioned in other people's reviews， there's a lot of fillers that could be essentially removed and would not make any difference to the content at all。In essence， decisions require a mixture of luck and skills - and we should focus on our skills and do not categorize decisions based on the outcome （result） but rather based on the reasoning of the First book chosen by my book club。 I did not finish it （one more chapter to go） but I felt that I wasn't missing out on any content - as what has been mentioned in other people's reviews， there's a lot of fillers that could be essentially removed and would not make any difference to the content at all。In essence， decisions require a mixture of luck and skills - and we should focus on our skills and do not categorize decisions based on the outcome （result） but rather based on the reasoning of the decision。 It's definitely easier said than done， though。DNF at the second to last chapter。 。。。more
Michael Ross
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I really enjoyed about the first quarter or third of the book， and then it deviated pretty quickly from what I thought was the book's main promise。 Definitely some good ideas at the beginning though！ I really enjoyed about the first quarter or third of the book， and then it deviated pretty quickly from what I thought was the book's main promise。 Definitely some good ideas at the beginning though！ 。。。more
Mike Burke
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Super-excellent！！Informative and educational exposition of useful think processes an scope。 This book also laced with significant examples of the existence and use of good decision-making vs poor decision-making。
Caitlin
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3。5 stars。 Duke’s book is a good introduction to the psychology of decision making and there are some really great lessons that she covers， including that it is much better to focus on whether or not choices （or bets） have been made with good reasoning behind them and not focusing on the outcome。 She gives relevant examples from a variety of areas， including sports， business and more， including a company that fired a president after much deliberation but when they struggled to find a suitable re 3。5 stars。 Duke’s book is a good introduction to the psychology of decision making and there are some really great lessons that she covers， including that it is much better to focus on whether or not choices （or bets） have been made with good reasoning behind them and not focusing on the outcome。 She gives relevant examples from a variety of areas， including sports， business and more， including a company that fired a president after much deliberation but when they struggled to find a suitable replacement automatically jumped to the conclusion that their decision to fire the previous president was a poor one， however the concerns with that individual had been significant and unchanging。The only thing that took my rating down from a 4 is that some of the lessons are repeated so many times throughout the book that it felt unnecessary to where I almost wondered if it was done simply to extend the book since the point had already been well covered （especially the topic of outcome/hindsight bias）。 。。。more
John Andreula
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Nothing in life is black and white despite what the news and political viewpoints tell us。 Annie Duke’s Thinking In Bets lays out a framework for not allowing ourselves to fall pray to ridiculous unilateral thinking。
Harry Lee
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I guess an actuary could have written a book on thinking probabilistically but none did。 What a good book to introduce probability into our daily life。
Writemoves
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I preferred The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova to this book。 Both were books about poker but I got more insights and ideas about psychology and decision making from the Konnikova book。 I read 50-60% of the Duke book and it just felt repetitious to me。 I had a hard time motivating myself to read more。
Emily Onufer
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"When we think in advance about the chances of alternative outcomes and make a decision based on those chances， it doesn't automatically make us wrong when things don't work out。 It just means that one event in a set of possible futures occurred。" 31"In most of our decisions， we are not betting against another person。 Rather， we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing。" 45-6"There is no sin in finding out there is evidence that contradicts what we believ "When we think in advance about the chances of alternative outcomes and make a decision based on those chances， it doesn't automatically make us wrong when things don't work out。 It just means that one event in a set of possible futures occurred。" 31"In most of our decisions， we are not betting against another person。 Rather， we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing。" 45-6"There is no sin in finding out there is evidence that contradicts what we believe。 The only sin is in not using that evidence as objectively as possible to refine that belief going forward。" 70 。。。more
Dhruv Mahajan
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I was expecting that the author would go into some mathematics。 However， the book mostly revolved around popular science。 The book does a good job selling the idea of probabilistic decision making and there are interesting ideas sprinkled around in the book。
Ilia Markov
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Started very promising but gradually turned into a collection of long-winded essays on decision making。
Zachary
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Good book on the importance of separating decisions from results Annie Duke discusses a number of examples where people mistakenly blame their results on their decisions when the results were due to circumstances/luck etc。
Jennampgmail。com
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Must readGreat pointed advise on how to move forward in decision making and reframe past eventsWho knew you could learn so much from poker！？
Harutyun Baghdasaryan
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Great book with lots of practical advices and solutions。 It could be extremely helpful for execution of your business。
Gorfo
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This is a great read for anyone who is trying to develop their decision-making capabilities， whether it's to get better at playing poker， improve your investing abilities， or just learn to live a happier life。 It's rare to have a book that can address all three。 I was definitely skeptical going into this read， but as I got into the rhythm I came to appreciate all the examples and level of depth that the author provides as she attempts to undo social constructs and norms around decision-making。 This is a great read for anyone who is trying to develop their decision-making capabilities， whether it's to get better at playing poker， improve your investing abilities， or just learn to live a happier life。 It's rare to have a book that can address all three。 I was definitely skeptical going into this read， but as I got into the rhythm I came to appreciate all the examples and level of depth that the author provides as she attempts to undo social constructs and norms around decision-making。 Thinking in Bets highlights quite a few pitfalls that I didn't even realize I had internalized and started to cycle through， in my own life。 。。。more
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